Hockey 2010: Is It Ours To Lose?

Most hockey fans — even those proudly bearing flags of other countries — would have to admit that Canada is the favourite to win men’s Olympic hockey gold in 2010. This country still produces more National Hockey League (NHL) players than any other, making the team’s depth enviable. However, it is the push for redemption after a seventh place finish in Turin, Italy in 2006, and the whole matter of Vancouver home ice advantage that seem to bolster team Canada’s chances.

Yet, it’s important to keep in mind just how disappointing the 2006 performance was. The whole team seemed to lack cohesion — normally dynamic players looked lethargic, especially in the offensive zone where few of them looked like they had a clue how to generate quality scoring chances on the wider ice surface. They failed to score even a single goal in two games during the group stage, and then were shut out by Russia a third time in the quarterfinals. And remember, the 2002 team, as well as it performed, actually broke a 50-year gold medal drought, a long wait for a country with such a passion for the sport and supposedly its best athletes.

It’s certainly not like Steve Yzerman and the brain trust responsible for managing the 2010 entry can kick back and examine the new medal designs while picking players’ names out of a hat. Along with the matter of who will be the coach (Mike Babcock perhaps?), what could be more important than choosing the right players? How does one choose the right mix of size versus skill and speed, or youth versus veteran presence? Here’s a positional scouting assessment that considers a number of players in contention, and indicates just how difficult the roster choices are. Note: All players’ ages are listed as of February 2010.

Centre

The management teams of the other countries must drool when they look at the plethora of options Canada has to choose from at the centre ice position. Sidney Crosby, 22, might have made a difference had he been named to the team in 2006, but his inexperience made it a fair decision not to include him. This time he’ll have been to a Stanley Cup final and will be the primary offensive threat. His game also seems adaptable to playing the wing. Joe Thornton, 30, struggled in Turin, but has been consistently one of the best Canadian passers in the game and brings size, a physical presence and premier faceoff skills. Vincent Lecavalier, 29, has suffered through a horrible season for Tampa, but accumulated 200 points over the previous two seasons.

A trio of players that dominated the 2005 World Junior Championships is poised to dominate. Ryan Getzlaf, 24, is literally a huge part of the youth movement that will bolster Canada’s chances. Mike Richards, 25, is also a physical, two-way centre. Jeff Carter, 25, will likely finish 2008-09 as the top Canadian goal-scorer. His style of play, weak faceoff percentage and right-handed shot also make him a prime candidate to fit in on the wing.

Marc Savard, 32, is often forgotten when Canada’s best players are mentioned. Yet he has been one of the NHL’s best playmakers over the past five seasons, and has dramatically improved his defensive play while leading the Bruins to the top of the league. Put a question mark next to the name of Joe Sakic, 40. Team captain in 2006, he may retire from the game due to his injured back. But if the B.C. native returns for one more season, his experience and leadership skills would be difficult to forego.

There are other centres that will receive consideration but will have to really impress to make the team. Manitoban Jonathan Toews, 21, is establishing himself as a leader, shootout wizard and potential 40-goal scorer. It seems that he is simply too young to make it, but he is highly regarded around the league. Eric Staal, 25, Derek Roy, 26, Jason Spezza, 26, Paul Stastny, 24, and Mike Ribiero, 30, will be watched, but remain long shots.

Left wing

Rick Nash, 25, first established himself as a great scorer, but has kept rounding out the other areas of his game. Simon Gagne, 29, seems to have fully recovered from his concussions and would bring some needed speed to the team. Patrick Marleau, 30, can play centre but has moved to Thornton’s wing this year in San Jose. Mike Cammalleri, 27, is enjoying a career season in Calgary, but still needs to work on his defensive and physical play.

Ray Whitney, 37, is considered an unsung journeyman, but his consistency is remarkable. Ryan Smyth, 33, has been hindered by injuries and has not been as productive in Colorado, but has loads of international experience. Brendan Morrow, 30, will have missed nearly the entire 2008-09 season, but had established himself as a gritty leader who can score, hit and check. Newfoundlander Ryane Clowe, 27, is also establishing himself in that mould.

Right wing

Jarome Iginla, 32, will be one of the first players named to the team and is the likely captain if Sakic and Niedermayer step aside. He scored twice in the 2002 gold medal game. Dany Heatley, 29, is a back-to-back 50-goal scorer and can play either wing. He flourished on a line with Getzlaf and Nash at the 2008 world championships, earning MVP honours.

Martin St. Louis, 34, has been the main bright spot for the brutal Lightning this season. He is still a great skater and point producer. Shane Doan, 33, would be an ideal fourth liner with his size, strength and two-way abilities. Corey Perry, 24, could play a similar role as a checker and agitator. Devin Setoguchi, 23, and Brad Boyes, 27, and Patrick Sharp, 28, can also score, but aren’t likely to be in the mix.

Defence

Scott Niedermayer, 36, had to withdraw prior to the 2006 games due to injury, hurting Canada’s transition game and power play. Providing he doesn’t retire, one of the best defencemen ever should anchor the back end. In 2010, it will be Mike Green, 24, that will run the power play. Despite missing 14 NHL games, he may still score 30 goals and win the Norris trophy.

Dion Phaneuf, 24, seems to have taken a step back this season, producing fewer points and becoming more erratic defensively. His physical play alone makes him a contender. Dan Boyle, 33, was a member of the “taxi squad” in 2006. He is a great passer and is smart in his own zone. Chris Pronger, 35, still averages 27 minutes of ice time per game, but is close to being surpassed by a player like Shea Weber, 24, who is comparable in size. Jay Bouwmeester, 26, has the size and speed to excel internationally, but there is a concern that he isn’t pressure-tested.

Winnipegger Duncan Keith, 26, may be the most underrated blue liner in the game. He was becoming dominant even before Toews and Kane made the Blackhawks a playoff contender. He logs a lot of ice time, and is poised to post his second consecutive season with an incredible plus/minus rating of +30 — Nicklas Lidstrom-like numbers.

Sheldon Souray, 33, has a great shot, but is inconsistent otherwise. Unheralded Dennis Wideman, 26, has had a breakout season, but does benefit from playing alongside Zdeno Chara. Ed Jovanovski, 33, Brent Burns, 24, Brian Campbell, 30, and Kevin Bieksa, 28, are also on the cusp, but are each lacking an element to complete their game. Veteran Rob Blake, 40, and Winnipeg’s Cam Barker, 23, are likely too old and young respectively.

Goal

The upcoming NHL playoffs should be the key to determining whether it will be Martin Brodeur, 37, or Roberto Luongo, 30, that will be pencilled in as the starting keeper in 2010. It’s gold medal and Cup-winner Brodeur’s job to lose, but a quick exit by New Jersey coupled with a long run by the Canucks could tip the balance.

Cam Ward, 25, should get the nod as the third net minder. The Conn Smythe winner and 2008 world championship starter is completing his finest NHL regular season and is more proven than other young candidates Marc-Andre Fleury, Steve Mason and Carey Price. Marty Turco and Jean-Sebastian Giguere would not be bad choices, but they have experienced poor seasons, and Ward would represent more a view to Hockey Canada’s future.

Players from the 2006 team not under consideration

Though he won the Conn Smythe Trophy in 2004, Brad Richards, 29, is overrated. His offensive production continues to drop, and he is poor defensively. Kris Draper, 38, could arguably still play a role, but has slowed down and has been surpassed by Mike Richards as the most potent two-way checking centre. Todd Bertuzzi, 35, was a mistaken choice last time around. He was not effective on the larger surface, and his history may have been a distraction. It certainly would be with the games in Vancouver. The play of Adam Foote, 38, Wade Redden, 32, and Robyn Regehr, 29, has regressed in the last four years.

Looking to 2010

Top 2006 teams Sweden and Russia look to have improved their line-ups, and the surprising silver medallist Finns will return with most of their 2006 roster intact. The United States will ice a young, fast-skating underdog team, and the Czech Republic cannot be discounted with a solid mix of veterans and youth. Even Slovakia, which finished ahead of Canada in 2006, is competitive with Hossa, Gaborik and Chara.

As if hockey fans need another reason to be anticipating Vancouver 2010, Gary Bettman has been spreading the word that he believes continued NHL player participation in the Olympics is detrimental to the league’s interests. It’s very possible that the best players in the world won’t be taking the ice in 2014.